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NAR Forecast


kurt
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Copied from the NYT, today........

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bucking conventional wisdom, a trade group for real-estate agents on Monday said the battered housing market is on the verge of stabilizing and inched-up its outlook for 2007 and 2008 home sales.

The revised monthly forecast from the National Association of Realtors, which followed nine straight months of downward revisions, calls for U.S. existing home sales to fall 12.5 percent this year to 5.67 million -- the lowest level since 2002. Last month, the association predicted 5.66 million existing homes would be sold this year, down from 6.48 million last year.

The Realtors' group also forecast sales will rise slightly in 2008 to 5.7 million, up from last month's prediction of 5.69 million.

Numerous other economists, however, are far less optimistic than the trade group. They predict weak sales and falling prices through next year and beyond and emphasize that those problems could worsen if the economy sinks into a recession.

Patrick Newport, an economist at Global Insight, forecasts that home sales will drop from 5.66 million this year to 4.7 million in 2008 -- 1 million fewer home sales than the real estate group's forecast.

''With the economy and job growth slowing...it is hard to believe that we have hit bottom,'' Newport said in a note to clients Monday. ''Our view is that prices need to drop further, and that housing activity will hit bottom about the middle of 2008.''

Joel Naroff, chief economist for Commerce Bank, said the U.S. is 12 to 18 months away from a ''normal housing market'' in which sales are growing and prices are rising or stable. Furthermore, he said the trade group's 0.2 percent revision to its sales forecast should be taken with a grain of salt, given the difficulty of projecting with any certainty.

Nevertheless, the Realtors group's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, gave a positive outlook for job growth and the replacement of subprime lenders to borrowers with weak credit with government-backed loans as reasons for the improved outlook."id="blue">

More @ http://www.nytimes.com

Kinda interesting, if it were true.

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The last para of your quote is what a soul should really read.

Does anyone else think this trend toward govt backed mortgages may be the wrong way to go about this?

Doesn't the general public see any connection between their beloved 401k and the mortgage market?

How many pos houses have you inspected for people that should have stayed renters? Me and mine - 4,000+-. "You can do it, we can help".

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Originally posted by Les

The last para of your quote is what a soul should really read.

Does anyone else think this trend toward govt backed mortgages may be the wrong way to go about this?

Doesn't the general public see any connection between their beloved 401k and the mortgage market?

How many pos houses have you inspected for people that should have stayed renters? Me and mine - 4,000+-. "You can do it, we can help".

Truly. More grease going to the realtors, now w/gov't. help. It's not going to make anything better, that's for sure.

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  • 1 month later...

Towards the end of the film "Animal House," Kevin Bacon, in his ROTC uniform, is trying to calm a chaotic mad crowd. He's yelling calmly, "Remain calm. All is well."

The NAR's predictions always remind me of that. If you recall, Kevin Bacon then turns around and gets trampled into the sidewalk by the mob. The future for NAR?

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I saw this discussed on CNN or FOX or one of those stations and a NAR rep was saying the same thing. I didn't believe her much to tell you the truth. I got the feeling they may be saying this to try and artificially boost home sales. I mean heck, more people will buy if they think the market is going up, or at least not dropping. Those waiting for the bottom might think it's here and buy now. Now Realtors can say, "The housing market is suppose to rebound this year" as per the NAR predictions and not be held liable. All in all, my gut is just telling me the NAR is only saying this for marketing purposes but not believing it themselves.

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A realtor's twist in today's paper:

"For example, a buyer who is selling a $350,000 house may be selling for $35,000 less than the peak value. If this buyer purchases a $600,000 house with a $60,000 decline from peak values, they in fact will see a $25,000 net positive effect in today's market."

You can't make this up....

Darren

www.aboutthehouseinspections.com

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